Winning Poker Lessons From Warren Buffett

Dear Poker Player,

Warren Buffett is one smart dude. And RICH.

He’s the second richest man in the WORLD… right behind

Bill Gates. Forbes estimates that his net worth is $40

BILLION.

(How’s THAT for a bankroll?)

What’s interesting about Buffett is that he made his fortune

over a LONGGG period of time… by consistently beating the

stock market year after year after year.

He wasn’t one of those “overnight” dot-com billionaires.

He wasn’t “lucky” to be in the right place at the right

time.

He didn’t “invent” some new technology that changed the

world.

Nope… all he did was invest and “pick winners” over and

over. Since taking control of Berkshire 40 years ago,

Buffett has delivered a compound annual return of 22%.

AND JUST BY DOING THAT, he became the 2nd richest man alive.

OK– so why am I rambling on about 75-year old man who’s

good at investing?

The reason is because I’ve realized that there are DOZENS of

important parallels between the STOCK MARKET and POKER.

Here are just a few:

* The stock market is often considered “gambling”, due to

its unpredictable nature… just as POKER is often

considered gambling, even though it’s a SKILL game.

* The stock market has a heavy emphasis on odds and

mathematics… just like poker.

* The stock market is predominately a male-driven

industry… just like poker.

* The stock market has PLENTY of up’s and down’s, and

“streaks”… just like poker.

* And so on.

Of course, these are “surface” similarities.

Now think about the PSYCHOLOGY of poker and the stock

market… and how they’re often EXACTLY THE SAME:

* In the stock market, everyone dreams of buying that one

MIRACLE STOCK that will go from $2 to $200 and make them

rich…

In poker, everyone has their “pipe dream” of winning a huge

million-dollar tournament on ESPN.

* When a stock tanks, most investors FREAK OUT and

immediately make several bad investment decisions in a row.

It’s usually THESE decisions that hurt them the most.

In poker, this is known as “tilt”. Bad beats cause some

damage… but it’s usually the decisions you make AFTER the

bad beats that cause you to lose the game.

* Believe it or not, most stock investors come out on the

LOSING END over time… even though the market has

historically gone UP year after year.

Most poker players end up losing over time also, despite all

the “fish” out there to prey on.

* And so on.

OK, so you get the idea.

Lately I’ve been reading a lot of books about the stock

market… and especially about Warren Buffett. (Hell, I need

somewhere to invest all these poker winnings!)

Anyway, here’s what’s REALLY interesting:

Warren Buffett’s INVESTMENT APPROACH is almost identical to

the POKER STRATEGY I use every day.

And it’s the SAME approach used by top poker pros to

consistently win tournaments and ring games…

Interesting, huh?

Of course, it makes sense when you think about it.

If poker and investing are similar, then the guys who beat

the STOCK MARKET probably use the same techniques as the

guys who win at POKER.

And who better to learn poker from than the “KING” of the

stock market… and the 2nd richest man in the world?

*** WARREN BUFFETT’S WINNING APPROACH ***

Warren Buffett operates on PRINCIPLES. He doesn’t get caught

up in “hype” or emotion.

Below are the five MOST IMPORTANT principles that he follows… and how they relate to your poker game.

PRINCIPLE 1: PATIENCE IS KEY.

Patience, patience, patience!

It’s the number one mistake that causes most poker players

to lose… and it’s one of the “secrets” to Buffett’s 22%

annual returns.

Warren Buffett does not make an investment unless he is

absolutely 100% confident that it will make him money.

That means he PASSES UP a lot of great investment

opportunities.

Warren Buffett has said “no” to stocks that ended up

increasing by 10,000%!

But more importantly… he’s passed up all those other

stocks that LOOKED GOOD, but PLUMMETED later.

The problem is, us human beings are addicted to ACTION and

MOVEMENT and EXCITEMENT. We don’t want to just sit around

and WAIT.

But that’s EXACTLY what Buffett does…

He waits.

And waits.

And waits.

He KNOWS that sooner or later, a GREAT opportunity will come

up… and then he’ll jump on it.

It’s the same way with poker.

You’ve GOT to be patient. We all want to “get in there” and

make strong bets… bluff out opponents… and take down

lots of pots. We want ACTION.

BUT THAT’S NOT HOW YOU DO IT.

You’ve got to sit back… be patient… and WAIT.

Wait for good cards.

Wait for the PERFECT time to bust the manic at the table.

Wait for the PERFECT time to steal the blinds.

Wait for the PERFECT time to bluff out an opponent.

Wait for the PERFECT time to go all-in.

And then when you DO make a move…

PRINCIPLE 2: MAINTAIN A “LOW TURNOVER” PORTFOLIO OF JUST A

FEW STOCKS.

Buffett insists on keeping 10-20% turnover with his

portfolio. This means he generally holds onto a stock for

5-10 years… AT LEAST.

This is obviously OPPOSITE of how most investors do it. Most

investors are checking the tickers every HOUR– watching for

the slightest indication of movement or news.

More importantly… Buffett only invests in a FEW STOCKS AT

A TIME.

Now THIS is crucial, because it goes against everything

you’ve ever learned.

Growing up, you probably heard this advice a lot:

“Never put all your eggs in one basket.”

Right?

Well, Warren Buffett does the OPPOSITE.

He puts all his eggs in one basket… but… he chooses that

basket VERY CAREFULLY!

You see, Buffett believes that if you’ve done your homework

and you’re confident in your decision, there’s NO NEED to

“diversify”.

In fact, he believes this is the ONLY REAL WAY to get rich

in the stock market. Because if you buy LOTS of stocks, some

are doomed to go down… and that will hurt your gains.

Now think how this relates to poker.

In poker, most players risk money on LOTS of pots, and try

to get the best odds for each one… maybe 55%, 60%, and the

OCCASIONAL 70% or higher.

What PROFESSIONAL poker players do is only play those

OCCASIONAL pots with the best odds.

BUT, they risk more chips when they do it…

So instead of risking 20% of your chip stack five times…

you want to risk 90% of your chip stack ONE time. But you

choose that time VERY CAREFULLY!

For instance, let’s say the “average” poker player enters

three pots where he feels the odds are in his favor.

The three pots go like this:

1.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.

2.) He risks 1000 in chips with 50% odds.

3.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.

Now… MATHEMATICALLY speaking… there are EIGHT different

ways these scenarios can go. They are as follows (a win is

designated with “W” and a loss with “L”):

1.) W-W-W

2.) W-W-L

3.) W-L-W

4.) W-L-L

5.) L-W-W

6.) L-W-L

7.) L-L-W

8.) L-L-L

If he wins all three, he ends up with 3000 chips in profit.

If he wins two but loses one, he ends up with just 1000

chips in profit.

If he LOSES two but wins one, he ends up with 1000 chips in

losses.

And he if loses all three, he loses 3000 chips total.

Get it?

Now let me share with you the PERCENTAGES of the above

scenarios.

Watch out, this may surprise you.

If you were to play three pots as described above and risk

1000 chips for each one, and do this exercise 100 times,

here’s what would happen:

18% of the time you’d win 3,000 chips total.

42% of the time you’d win 1,000 chips total.

32% of the time you’d lose 1,000 chips total.

8% of the time you’d lose 3,000 chips total.

Your “net average” would be to PROFIT 400 CHIPS.

OK… that’s the “normal” approach.

Now let’s look at the WARREN BUFFETT approach.

Let’s say you entered just ONE pot and risked 3000 chips

(instead of 1000) with 70% odds in your favor.

Now watch what happens:

70% of the time you’d win 3,000 chips total.

30% of the time you’d lose 3,000 chips total.

Your “net average” would be to PROFIT 1200 CHIPS.

That’s TRIPLE the results over time!

The key is to get BETTER ODDS and RISK MORE.

I better interject here that I do NOT recommend being one of

those players who just sits back, waits for the “nuts”, and

then goes all-in.

Not even close.

In fact, if you’ve read my newsletters you know that I’m a

very aggressive player who loves to push action.

The KEY is that I BUILD THIS IMAGE through techniques based

on feeler bets, positioning, and sensing weakness.

AND WHEN THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY COMES ALONG, I RISK AS MANY

CHIPS AS I CAN!

I know that when the odds are heavily in my favor, it’s time

to put my eggs in one basket and go for it…

PRINCIPLE 3: THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS RATIONAL OR

“EFFICIENT”.

There’s a popular stock market concept called, “Efficient

Market Theory” (EMT).

Most of the world’s leading business schools teach this

widely-accepted concept.

However…

Warren Buffett says that the EMT is a bunch of hogwash!

He’s actually gone on record saying that part of him LOVES

the fact that business schools teach this theory: It makes

things easier on him because his competition doesn’t know

what they’re doing!

Now… I’m not going to argue whether the theory is right or

wrong. It doesn’t matter for our discussion here.

What I find intriguing is what Buffett believes IS true

about the stock market…

You see, the EMT basically says that the stock market is

“efficient” in its pricing… and that most buy/sell

behavior is “rational”.

Buffett disagrees. He is CONSTANTLY scouting for

opportunities where he thinks the market is acting in an

IRRATIONAL manner… and then he jumps on the chance to buy

an under-priced stock.

In other words, a core part of his investment philosophy is

that the stock market is NOT efficient… and that there’s

always room to grow your “bankroll” when others act

irrationally.

It’s the same with poker.

When you’re playing Texas Holdem, you want to spot the

“sucker” at the table… the guy who is making IRRATIONAL

decisions.

This doesn’t only apply to amateurs, either. Even PROS have

“irrational” habits, tells, and “tilt” behavior.

Your OPPONENTS will open up millions of “profit

opportunities” for you… if you just watch closely.

And that brings us to the next principle:

PRINCIPLE 4: FOCUS ON THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS, NOT THE

PRICE OF THE STOCK.

This one has almost a direct translation to poker:

FOCUS ON THE PLAYERS, NOT THE CARDS.

You’re not playing poker against the house… you’re playing

against your opponents.

With the stock market, everyone is always looking at the

PRICE of a stock to determine if it’s worth buying or

selling.

Buffett actually doesn’t even look at the price until LAST.

What he looks at is the VALUE OF THE BUSINESS.

He only invests in top-notch businesses that meet specific

conditions. He wants a business with strong growth prospects

LONG TERM, good management, and stable numbers.

Once he finds a business that meets these criteria, THEN he

looks at the price.

When the cards come out, what’s the first thing you’re

thinking about? What are you looking at?

You should be thinking about your OPPONENTS… the

POSITIONING at the table… the BETTING HABITS you’ve picked

up in the last few hands… and your opponents’ FACES as

they look at their cards.

THEN when the action comes to you and it’s YOUR TURN, you

should peek to see what you’re holding.

Opponents first, cards second.

PRINCIPLE 5: DEMAND A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR EVERY PURCHASE.

Warren Buffett is actually a very “conservative” investor,

as are most poker professionals. He’ll only buy stocks that

he feels are practically “guaranteed” to go up.

You should demand a “margin of safety” on every hand you

play. This is actually much easier than it sounds.

Some of your tactics should include:

* Avoiding heads-up situations with players who have more

chips, and instead favoring those with fewer chips. (That

way if you go all-in and lose, you can still be in the

game.)

* Buying pots and bluffing when you have good positioning.

(That way you can get a read on your opponent and escape if

things go bad.)

* Only “chasing” draws when the pot odds are CONSIDERABLY in

your favor. (That way you end up way ahead over time.)

* And so on.

*** PLAY POKER LIKE WARREN BUFFETT ***

Perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT lesson I’ve learned from Warren

Buffett is to NEVER FEAR doing the “unpopular” thing.

His career PROVES that “going against the grain” is often

the BEST choice.

He doesn’t live by what others do… he operates on GUIDING

PRINCIPLES that “win” over time.

Whether it’s ways to leverage table positioning, tactics for

defeating common opponent styles, techniques for “stealing

the button”, or figuring out the right times to bluff…

…You’ve got to first learn the POKER PRINCIPLES. And then

you need the GUTS to stick to them.

So where do you learn these principles?

The best place to start is by joining my free Poker Tips

email newsletter. It’s jam-packed with Texas Holem tactics

and secrets that you can INSTANTLY use to increase your

winnings.

Join now, and your first issue will include this free

report:

“Avoid These Costly Mistakes When Playing Texas Holdem”

Inside you’ll learn the 10 most dangerous mistakes most

poker players make… and HOW YOU CAN AVOID THEM.

Talk to you soon.

Your New Friend,

Roy Rounder