Winning Poker Lessons From Warren Buffett

Dear Poker Player,

Warren Buffett is one smart dude. And RICH.

He’s the second richest man in the WORLD… right behind

Bill Gates. Forbes estimates that his net worth is $40

BILLION.

(How’s THAT for a bankroll?)

What’s interesting about Buffett is that he made his fortune

over a LONGGG period of time… by consistently beating the

stock market year after year after year.

He wasn’t one of those “overnight” dot-com billionaires.

He wasn’t “lucky” to be in the right place at the right

time.

He didn’t “invent” some new technology that changed the

world.

Nope… all he did was invest and “pick winners” over and

over. Since taking control of Berkshire 40 years ago,

Buffett has delivered a compound annual return of 22%.

AND JUST BY DOING THAT, he became the 2nd richest man alive.

OK– so why am I rambling on about 75-year old man who’s

good at investing?

The reason is because I’ve realized that there are DOZENS of

important parallels between the STOCK MARKET and POKER.

Here are just a few:

* The stock market is often considered “gambling”, due to

its unpredictable nature… just as POKER is often

considered gambling, even though it’s a SKILL game.

* The stock market has a heavy emphasis on odds and

mathematics… just like poker.

* The stock market is predominately a male-driven

industry… just like poker.

* The stock market has PLENTY of up’s and down’s, and

“streaks”… just like poker.

* And so on.

Of course, these are “surface” similarities.

Now think about the PSYCHOLOGY of poker and the stock

market… and how they’re often EXACTLY THE SAME:

* In the stock market, everyone dreams of buying that one

MIRACLE STOCK that will go from $2 to $200 and make them

rich…

In poker, everyone has their “pipe dream” of winning a huge

million-dollar tournament on ESPN.

* When a stock tanks, most investors FREAK OUT and

immediately make several bad investment decisions in a row.

It’s usually THESE decisions that hurt them the most.

In poker, this is known as “tilt”. Bad beats cause some

damage… but it’s usually the decisions you make AFTER the

bad beats that cause you to lose the game.

* Believe it or not, most stock investors come out on the

LOSING END over time… even though the market has

historically gone UP year after year.

Most poker players end up losing over time also, despite all

the “fish” out there to prey on.

* And so on.

OK, so you get the idea.

Lately I’ve been reading a lot of books about the stock

market… and especially about Warren Buffett. (Hell, I need

somewhere to invest all these poker winnings!)

Anyway, here’s what’s REALLY interesting:

Warren Buffett’s INVESTMENT APPROACH is almost identical to

the POKER STRATEGY I use every day.

And it’s the SAME approach used by top poker pros to

consistently win tournaments and ring games…

Interesting, huh?

Of course, it makes sense when you think about it.

If poker and investing are similar, then the guys who beat

the STOCK MARKET probably use the same techniques as the

guys who win at POKER.

And who better to learn poker from than the “KING” of the

stock market… and the 2nd richest man in the world?

*** WARREN BUFFETT’S WINNING APPROACH ***

Warren Buffett operates on PRINCIPLES. He doesn’t get caught

up in “hype” or emotion.

Below are the five MOST IMPORTANT principles that he follows… and how they relate to your poker game.

PRINCIPLE 1: PATIENCE IS KEY.

Patience, patience, patience!

It’s the number one mistake that causes most poker players

to lose… and it’s one of the “secrets” to Buffett’s 22%

annual returns.

Warren Buffett does not make an investment unless he is

absolutely 100% confident that it will make him money.

That means he PASSES UP a lot of great investment

opportunities.

Warren Buffett has said “no” to stocks that ended up

increasing by 10,000%!

But more importantly… he’s passed up all those other

stocks that LOOKED GOOD, but PLUMMETED later.

The problem is, us human beings are addicted to ACTION and

MOVEMENT and EXCITEMENT. We don’t want to just sit around

and WAIT.

But that’s EXACTLY what Buffett does…

He waits.

And waits.

And waits.

He KNOWS that sooner or later, a GREAT opportunity will come

up… and then he’ll jump on it.

It’s the same way with poker.

You’ve GOT to be patient. We all want to “get in there” and

make strong bets… bluff out opponents… and take down

lots of pots. We want ACTION.

BUT THAT’S NOT HOW YOU DO IT.

You’ve got to sit back… be patient… and WAIT.

Wait for good cards.

Wait for the PERFECT time to bust the manic at the table.

Wait for the PERFECT time to steal the blinds.

Wait for the PERFECT time to bluff out an opponent.

Wait for the PERFECT time to go all-in.

And then when you DO make a move…

PRINCIPLE 2: MAINTAIN A “LOW TURNOVER” PORTFOLIO OF JUST A

FEW STOCKS.

Buffett insists on keeping 10-20% turnover with his

portfolio. This means he generally holds onto a stock for

5-10 years… AT LEAST.

This is obviously OPPOSITE of how most investors do it. Most

investors are checking the tickers every HOUR– watching for

the slightest indication of movement or news.

More importantly… Buffett only invests in a FEW STOCKS AT

A TIME.

Now THIS is crucial, because it goes against everything

you’ve ever learned.

Growing up, you probably heard this advice a lot:

“Never put all your eggs in one basket.”

Right?

Well, Warren Buffett does the OPPOSITE.

He puts all his eggs in one basket… but… he chooses that

basket VERY CAREFULLY!

You see, Buffett believes that if you’ve done your homework

and you’re confident in your decision, there’s NO NEED to

“diversify”.

In fact, he believes this is the ONLY REAL WAY to get rich

in the stock market. Because if you buy LOTS of stocks, some

are doomed to go down… and that will hurt your gains.

Now think how this relates to poker.

In poker, most players risk money on LOTS of pots, and try

to get the best odds for each one… maybe 55%, 60%, and the

OCCASIONAL 70% or higher.

What PROFESSIONAL poker players do is only play those

OCCASIONAL pots with the best odds.

BUT, they risk more chips when they do it…

So instead of risking 20% of your chip stack five times…

you want to risk 90% of your chip stack ONE time. But you

choose that time VERY CAREFULLY!

For instance, let’s say the “average” poker player enters

three pots where he feels the odds are in his favor.

The three pots go like this:

1.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.

2.) He risks 1000 in chips with 50% odds.

3.) He risks 1000 in chips with 60% odds.

Now… MATHEMATICALLY speaking… there are EIGHT different

ways these scenarios can go. They are as follows (a win is

designated with “W” and a loss with “L”):

1.) W-W-W

2.) W-W-L

3.) W-L-W

4.) W-L-L

5.) L-W-W

6.) L-W-L

7.) L-L-W

8.) L-L-L

If he wins all three, he ends up with 3000 chips in profit.

If he wins two but loses one, he ends up with just 1000

chips in profit.

If he LOSES two but wins one, he ends up with 1000 chips in

losses.

And he if loses all three, he loses 3000 chips total.

Get it?

Now let me share with you the PERCENTAGES of the above

scenarios.

Watch out, this may surprise you.

If you were to play three pots as described above and risk

1000 chips for each one, and do this exercise 100 times,

here’s what would happen:

18% of the time you’d win 3,000 chips total.

42% of the time you’d win 1,000 chips total.

32% of the time you’d lose 1,000 chips total.

8% of the time you’d lose 3,000 chips total.

Your “net average” would be to PROFIT 400 CHIPS.

OK… that’s the “normal” approach.

Now let’s look at the WARREN BUFFETT approach.

Let’s say you entered just ONE pot and risked 3000 chips

(instead of 1000) with 70% odds in your favor.

Now watch what happens:

70% of the time you’d win 3,000 chips total.

30% of the time you’d lose 3,000 chips total.

Your “net average” would be to PROFIT 1200 CHIPS.

That’s TRIPLE the results over time!

The key is to get BETTER ODDS and RISK MORE.

I better interject here that I do NOT recommend being one of

those players who just sits back, waits for the “nuts”, and

then goes all-in.

Not even close.

In fact, if you’ve read my newsletters you know that I’m a

very aggressive player who loves to push action.

The KEY is that I BUILD THIS IMAGE through techniques based

on feeler bets, positioning, and sensing weakness.

AND WHEN THE RIGHT OPPORTUNITY COMES ALONG, I RISK AS MANY

CHIPS AS I CAN!

I know that when the odds are heavily in my favor, it’s time

to put my eggs in one basket and go for it…

PRINCIPLE 3: THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT ALWAYS RATIONAL OR

“EFFICIENT”.

There’s a popular stock market concept called, “Efficient

Market Theory” (EMT).

Most of the world’s leading business schools teach this

widely-accepted concept.

However…

Warren Buffett says that the EMT is a bunch of hogwash!

He’s actually gone on record saying that part of him LOVES

the fact that business schools teach this theory: It makes

things easier on him because his competition doesn’t know

what they’re doing!

Now… I’m not going to argue whether the theory is right or

wrong. It doesn’t matter for our discussion here.

What I find intriguing is what Buffett believes IS true

about the stock market…

You see, the EMT basically says that the stock market is

“efficient” in its pricing… and that most buy/sell

behavior is “rational”.

Buffett disagrees. He is CONSTANTLY scouting for

opportunities where he thinks the market is acting in an

IRRATIONAL manner… and then he jumps on the chance to buy

an under-priced stock.

In other words, a core part of his investment philosophy is

that the stock market is NOT efficient… and that there’s

always room to grow your “bankroll” when others act

irrationally.

It’s the same with poker.

When you’re playing Texas Holdem, you want to spot the

“sucker” at the table… the guy who is making IRRATIONAL

decisions.

This doesn’t only apply to amateurs, either. Even PROS have

“irrational” habits, tells, and “tilt” behavior.

Your OPPONENTS will open up millions of “profit

opportunities” for you… if you just watch closely.

And that brings us to the next principle:

PRINCIPLE 4: FOCUS ON THE VALUE OF THE BUSINESS, NOT THE

PRICE OF THE STOCK.

This one has almost a direct translation to poker:

FOCUS ON THE PLAYERS, NOT THE CARDS.

You’re not playing poker against the house… you’re playing

against your opponents.

With the stock market, everyone is always looking at the

PRICE of a stock to determine if it’s worth buying or

selling.

Buffett actually doesn’t even look at the price until LAST.

What he looks at is the VALUE OF THE BUSINESS.

He only invests in top-notch businesses that meet specific

conditions. He wants a business with strong growth prospects

LONG TERM, good management, and stable numbers.

Once he finds a business that meets these criteria, THEN he

looks at the price.

When the cards come out, what’s the first thing you’re

thinking about? What are you looking at?

You should be thinking about your OPPONENTS… the

POSITIONING at the table… the BETTING HABITS you’ve picked

up in the last few hands… and your opponents’ FACES as

they look at their cards.

THEN when the action comes to you and it’s YOUR TURN, you

should peek to see what you’re holding.

Opponents first, cards second.

PRINCIPLE 5: DEMAND A MARGIN OF SAFETY FOR EVERY PURCHASE.

Warren Buffett is actually a very “conservative” investor,

as are most poker professionals. He’ll only buy stocks that

he feels are practically “guaranteed” to go up.

You should demand a “margin of safety” on every hand you

play. This is actually much easier than it sounds.

Some of your tactics should include:

* Avoiding heads-up situations with players who have more

chips, and instead favoring those with fewer chips. (That

way if you go all-in and lose, you can still be in the

game.)

* Buying pots and bluffing when you have good positioning.

(That way you can get a read on your opponent and escape if

things go bad.)

* Only “chasing” draws when the pot odds are CONSIDERABLY in

your favor. (That way you end up way ahead over time.)

* And so on.

*** PLAY POKER LIKE WARREN BUFFETT ***

Perhaps the MOST IMPORTANT lesson I’ve learned from Warren

Buffett is to NEVER FEAR doing the “unpopular” thing.

His career PROVES that “going against the grain” is often

the BEST choice.

He doesn’t live by what others do… he operates on GUIDING

PRINCIPLES that “win” over time.

Whether it’s ways to leverage table positioning, tactics for

defeating common opponent styles, techniques for “stealing

the button”, or figuring out the right times to bluff…

…You’ve got to first learn the POKER PRINCIPLES. And then

you need the GUTS to stick to them.

So where do you learn these principles?

The best place to start is by joining my free Poker Tips

email newsletter. It’s jam-packed with Texas Holem tactics

and secrets that you can INSTANTLY use to increase your

winnings.

Join now, and your first issue will include this free

report:

“Avoid These Costly Mistakes When Playing Texas Holdem”

Inside you’ll learn the 10 most dangerous mistakes most

poker players make… and HOW YOU CAN AVOID THEM.

Talk to you soon.

Your New Friend,

Roy Rounder

The Effective Techniques of Football Betting in Running – 7 Important Tips

During a match day where there are packed with eventful matches. You are busy watching TV, glancing through the internet bookmakers’ odds, waiting to place bet on the football betting in running. You are busy switching from one channel to another to find out the updates of the different matches. So how are you going to gain the advantages on your football betting in running?

In today betting world, as long as you have a internet connection, you can always turn on to the sporting website such as soccer net, sporting life etc. Visit the “Game Cast” or the live updates. These websites would be able to provide you with useful information. With the lives update information, you are not placing your bet blindly, and it will give you the betting edge, which will help you to win more money in the long run. Below are some of the important factors that you must know before you place bet on football betting in running at the betting exchange:

1.) Fast internet connection: it will help you to get information faster and updated. You will have a quick understanding of the games on the grounds too.

2.) Focus: Concentrate on a league that you are familiar with. You will have betting edge if you know the leagues well.

3.) Don’t rush into the game when a game has just scored a goal. Wait for the odds to be stabilized. Because some the skillful players are using software bot or tools to control the odds, they are out they to fish out the better odds. Situations like that will cause inexperience punters to panic. Don’t jump into the game.

4.) Most of the Live matches although are shown “live”, but it may be delay for a few minutes. This may cause a huge difference in football in-play game.

5.) Never assume that a team with 3 goals down during the game will certainly lose the match, and hence place a huge bet on the leading team. Just recall the match played in 2005, the champion league final match , where the magnificent Liverpool made a sensationally come back from 3 goals down at half-time, and eventually beat AC Milian…Many punters were seriously hurt by this particular game, which cause a huge damage on their bank roll.

6.) Always start with small bets and slowly built up your bank roll. If you are using a correct betting tool or strategy, you should make money in the long run.

7.) Have fun in football in play game. When your chips are down, don’t chase your losing stakes. Football betting in running is exciting and entertaining.

What Makes You the Best Online Poker Player?

Every beginner or every novice that starts out at the game wants to be one of the top ranked pro poker players out there. They are inspired by the names of Alan Betson, Chip Reese, Chris Grigorian, Chris Moneymaker and many others. But since they are just starting out, they seldom have any solid idea about what really constitutes all these master players.

In the game of poker, there are actually four types of players: loose and passive, loose and aggressive, tight and passive, tight and aggressive. They call the tight and aggressive one the poker shark. It doesn’t play often, but when it plays, it plays to win.

And some of the characteristics that are found in such players are:

  • Mathematics: Poker players need to be very strong at statistics and probability. They have to constantly calculate the chances, the scopes of winning and the direction of the game. They should understand the tactics of outs that simply signifies the winning hand with the winning cards and their chance of hitting. He should also have a fair idea of betting and forecasting as well. Mathematical skills are the basic things that one should acquire before trying their hand at a real time money game.
  • Discipline: This is one thing that separates a shark from any other fish. They don’t try their hand at everything and hope to get lucky, but they have a strong sense of self-control and only play tight games. He knows that every game calls for a different skill. He knows his strengths and weaknesses. He knows when to call, raise a bet or fold his hand. He also has the discipline of analyzing his games and learning from them.
  • Psychology: They rightly say that poker is more of a game of psychology. You need to know what your opponent has, what your opponent thinks about you, what your opponent feels that you are thinking about him. Reading your opponents is one of the most important things of poker. The second most important thing is to be able to manipulate the thinking of your opponents and thus take the game to your direction. He also knows that while math battles are the key in limit game, psychology holds the key in the no-limit ones.
  • Calculated risk taking ability: Most of the master players understand where to draw the limits. They have a strong sense of risk vs. reward chance of the game. They know how much need to risk, how much they should keep in the bankroll, how much will allow him for a next day’s play.
  • Flexibility: Last but not the least, poker is still quite a game of luck, so being able to shift gears from time to time according to the game is one of the most important assets of a poker player.

Show No Mercy in Poker

One of the most important factors to become a successful online poker player is to be merciless with your opponents. This may sound easy, but for some reason or another people tend to make bad moves and play too soft due to their mercy.

First you need to understand what poker is. Poker is about winning chips, and chips are usually money, the more chips you win the better you are doing. Again, it may sound utterly stupid but it is good for you to remember what your objective is so you won’t get distracted by things like getting more chips only from some individual you dislike or to make a good and “thrilling” competition.

Let’s put it that way, if you are playing online poker against your grandma your objective is to take all her money for you, if you are not comfortable with doing that do not play against your grandma. Maybe your grandma doesn’t play online poker (or maybe she does) but the big idea is that no matter if you like the player or you have chatted with him for a while or he is your friend or whatever situation your objective is still the same, taking all the chips in his/her stack and add them to yours.

Sometimes you may feel pity for a player who is losing a lot of money and still keeps playing like a fish, this may lead you to play with some kind of mercy to him, and you’ll earn less money than you could. Earning less money than you could is the same as losing money, so if you show mercy you are losing money and you are not playing poker correctly.

One of the advantages you have when you are playing online poker instead of brick and mortar poker is that you don’t see the face of your opponent. You must show no mercy when playing poker and then if you want you can give away part of your winnings to charity if that relieves you.

Some merciful actions are for example on a pot you have nuts and the other player has invested a lot of money into it, let’s imagine a $50 pot, if you got another $50, bet them all on the river. Even if you know the other player will get busted by that action, do not bet $30 if you think he will call $50. If you didn’t earn those $20 is the same as if you lost them.

Other merciful actions are to “give away” chips to players who are almost out of a tournament. You know you have lost the hand because you were drawing and on the river the other player goes all in with his little stack. You know you are going to lose but you call because you want to see his cards and you think it is no problem for you to give away a few chips to a player who is almost busted. This player may be the final winner of the tournament for such a merciful action.